Login/Sign up

World Association of International Studies

Post US Missile Strike on Syria and the Iran Factor
Created by John Eipper on 04/11/17 4:09 AM

Previous posts in this discussion:


US Missile Strike on Syria and the Iran Factor (A. J. Cave, USA, 04/11/17 4:09 am)

It is interesting to thumb through some of the posts on the US airstrike on one of the Syrian airbases. Without getting knee-deep into the analytical and political swamp, I'll tiptoe by saying that buried among the hot and heavy rhetoric coming out of the Islamic Republic of Iran about US-Syria is a bit from the Iranian President Rouhani that "Syria could use some reform."

I should unpack the significance of this bit for those who are not familiar with the regional geopolitics.

Islamic Republic's presidential elections are in May (2017) and President Rouhani, who is running for a second term, is ‎staying with his platform of moderation (vs the typical hardliners playbook). Islamic Republic is one of the key players in the six-year old proxy Syrian's civil war (along with Russia). However, with the military entry of US into the mix, all bets are off and they have to re-think their strategy and priority and re-set their tactics. It is one thing to huff and puff, but they simply can't fight real wars on multiple fronts (internal and historical conflicts, plus ISIS, Syria and now US). So, they are subtly signaling a willingness to cut a deal as long as they are seen as the key regional player keeping peace between US and Russia. Syria, for all practical purposes, is just a ghost in the shell.

The biggest challenge of the Iranians is to get us (United States) to the bargaining table--front and center, not via other regional proxies. I don't know if it is a game President Trump is willing to play--yet.

JE comments:  Sifting through the tea leaves of "Syria could use some reform" yields a significant message.  To use the new buzzword of geopolitics, are we seeing an Iranian "pivot" on Assad?  Wouldn't that be giving a victory of sorts to Trump?  Granted, the fledgling IRI did the same for Reagan in 1980-'81.

A. J.:  When time allows, could you send us a primer on Iran's upcoming elections?

Rate this post
Informational value 
Reader Ratings (1)
Informational value100%

Visits: 1


Please login/register to reply or comment: Login/Sign up

  • Iran's Presidential Elections, May 19 (A. J. Cave, USA 04/13/17 4:32 AM)
    I used to say that [fill-in the blank] in the Islamic Republic is complicated. But it actually isn't.

    Here is the easy button: Islamic Republic is the new absolute monarchy, and the supreme leader is the new tyrant.

    In a nutshell, during the week of 11-15 April, Muslim Iranian men enter the presidential race by registering with the presidential election office‎. A few brave women throw their headscarfs into the race too, but they have a better chance of getting hit by lightning than remaining in the race.

    Some important-sounding committee narrows the long list of presidential hopefuls to a handful based on guidelines from the supreme leader. Then there are public campaigns and TV debates by the approved candidates. Some of the Iranians who are eligible to vote, vote. Then the president is elected by the election committee ‎according to the preferences of the supreme leader, based on direct communique from God.

    The president is responsible for the humdrum business of running the country, while the supreme leader is in charge of talking to God, as the representative of the Prophet on earth. The rest of the ruling class is more pragmatically focused on pocketing the oil profits.

    The top 3 strategic imperatives of the current supreme leader are:

    1) global activation of political Islam

    2) destruction of ISIS, after which, they can go back to beating up on Israel and US

    3) marginalization of Saudi Arabia

    Yesterday, former two-term IRI president, the infamous Mahmood Ahmadi-nejad, and (almost) all of his old gang signed up for the gig too, even though they were told by the supreme leader ‎that was a bad idea.

    That's about it.

    Islamic Republic's presidential election process trumps our democratic system by putting a supreme leader, who communicates directly with God, in charge of the president.

    JE comments:  Ahmadinejad looks rested and ready.  I know nothing about Iranian public opinion, but there must be some sentiment that the IRI needs a tough guy to stand up to the American Tough Guy.

    One thing to admire about Iranian politics:  elections lasting one month.  Wouldn't that be nice?  

    Please login/register to reply or comment:

Trending Now

All Forums with Published Content (46755 posts)

- Unassigned

Culture & Language

American Indians Art Awards Bestiary of Insults Books Conspiracy Theories Culture Ethics Film Food Futurology Gender Issues Humor Intellectuals Jews Language Literature Media Coverage Movies Music Newspapers Numismatics Philosophy Plagiarism Prisons Racial Issues Sports Tattoos Western Civilization World Communications


Capitalism Economics International Finance World Bank World Economy


Education Hoover Institution Journal Publications Libraries Universities World Bibliography Series


Biographies Conspiracies Crime Decline of West German Holocaust Historical Figures History Holocausts Individuals Japanese Holocaust Leaders Learning Biographies Learning History Russian Holocaust Turkish Holocaust


Afghanistan Africa Albania Algeria Argentina Asia Australia Austria Bangladesh Belgium Belize Bolivia Brazil Canada Central America Chechnya Chile China Colombia Costa Rica Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark East Europe East Timor Ecuador Egypt El Salvador England Estonia Ethiopia Europe European Union Finland France French Guiana Germany Greece Guatemala Haiti Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Iran (Persia) Iraq Ireland Israel/Palestine Italy Japan Jordan Kenya Korea Kosovo Kuwait Kyrgyzstan Latin America Liberia Libya Mali Mexico Middle East Mongolia Morocco Namibia Nations Compared Netherlands New Zealand Nicaragua Niger Nigeria North America Norway Pacific Islands Pakistan Palestine Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Polombia Portugal Romania Saudi Arabia Scandinavia Scotland Serbia Singapore Slovakia South Africa South America Southeast Asia Spain Sudan Sweden Switzerland Syria Thailand The Pacific Tunisia Turkey Turkmenistan UK (United Kingdom) Ukraine USA (America) USSR/Russia Uzbekistan Venezuela Vietnam West Europe Yemen Yugoslavia Zaire


Balkanization Communism Constitutions Democracy Dictators Diplomacy Floism Global Issues Hegemony Homeland Security Human Rights Immigration International Events Law Nationalism NATO Organizations Peace Politics Terrorism United Nations US Elections 2008 US Elections 2012 US Elections 2016 US Elections 2020 Violence War War Crimes Within the US


Christianity Hinduism Islam Judaism Liberation Theology Religion

Science & Technology

Alcohol Anthropology Automotives Biological Weapons Design and Architecture Drugs Energy Environment Internet Landmines Mathematics Medicine Natural Disasters Psychology Recycling Research Science and Humanities Sexuality Space Technology World Wide Web (Internet)


Geography Maps Tourism Transportation


1-TRIBUTES TO PROFESSOR HILTON 2001 Conference on Globalizations Academic WAR Forums Ask WAIS Experts Benefactors Chairman General News Member Information Member Nomination PAIS Research News Ronald Hilton Quotes Seasonal Messages Tributes to Prof. Hilton Varia Various Topics WAIS WAIS 2006 Conference WAIS Board Members WAIS History WAIS Interviews WAIS NEWS waisworld.org launch WAR Forums on Media & Research Who's Who