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Post Economic Roadmap, 2009
Created by John Eipper on 09/06/12 4:30 AM

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Economic Roadmap, 2009 (Tor Guimaraes, USA, 09/06/12 4:30 am)

JE (5 September) asked me to forward the link to the economic "roadmap" I posted on WAIS in 2009. I found one post which refers to a prior one which I don't know how to retrieve. See below: "That is why some months ago when forecasting the US economy I wished our government would focus any stimulus on promoting entrepreneurship, creating jobs, lowering loan rates, and reducing taxes for the low and middle classes."

Wow, it is amazing how time flies by; but it was fun reading the forecasting stuff I wrote years ago. Not bad for a monkey from a banana tree in Brazil.

Re: Economics: on Budget Deficits and Deflation (Tor Guimaraes, US)


"Intuitively and superficially one might expect the degree of difficulty successfully fighting inflation or deflation to be about the same. Unfortunately for the US present economic predicament, that is not true. In a healthy economy, inflation can be controlled successfully by merely raising interest rates. When an economy enters a deflationary spiral as we have now, lowering rates does not help much because no one is buying. If consumers don't buy for whatever reason, business slows down, reducing inventories and laying off workers. That, in turn, will further reduce aggregate consumption, and so on. That is why some months ago when forecasting the US economy I wished our government would focus any stimulus on promoting entrepreneurship, creating jobs, lowering loan rates, and reducing taxes for the low and middle classes. The deflationary spiral must be artificially broken or the social devastation will be enormous even after the economy stabilizes at a much lower GDP level. In the long run, printing a lot of money in a stagnant economy is a good way to debase your currency and produce crippling inflation. It won't improve the economy."

JE comments:  The earlier post Tor couldn't locate may have been this one from 6 January 2009--two weeks before Obama took office:


Click on the above, or read this excerpt:  "We need synergistic projects like developing products which will produce jobs, reduce dependence on oil, and help the environment. We need projects which produce new technologies, jobs, and will spawn new businesses producing the same eventually at a profit. One-time cash handouts will not work. Pork projects representing poor investments for society will not work, even if they temporarily produce new jobs. Tax breaks must be carefully targeted to promote household consumption and jobs. Don't listen to the supply-side economists; if the buyers are not available, capitalists will not invest no matter how many incentives you give them."

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