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World Association of International Studies

Post Brexit Update
Created by John Eipper on 09/05/19 4:28 AM

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Brexit Update (Angel Vinas, Belgium, 09/05/19 4:28 am)

I'm sorry I've been silent for so long. Since my return from holidays I haven't stopped working.

However, simultaneous with this week's remarkable events the British Parliament, a new report on the likely consequences of a Brexit without a deal was published. It has been long in the making. It also makes for grim reading. I prefer to upload the link so that WAISers can surmise for themselves the economic consequences of Mr Johnson's stated policy. All of this for allegedly UK's future emancipation and freedom!


JE comments:  Boris Johnson received nothing but jeers and defeat from Parliament this Tuesday (September 3rd).  Has a British PM ever had a shorter "honeymoon"?

Who can walk us through the nuts and bolts?  As I understand it, BoJo is leaning towards calling "snap" elections, which could be held as early as December, but Corbyn is opposed.  And then there is Farage lurking in the wings.

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  • Another Brexit Extension? (José Ignacio Soler, Venezuela 09/06/19 2:58 AM)

    I have followed the recent Brexit events in the United Kingdom, particularly this week's Parliament debates and outcomes, which left Boris Johnson disappointed and annoyed. Consider the more important results, first a law banning a no-deal Brexit and second denying new elections. Both were BoJo tactics to force a new agreement with the EU.

    What are the possible options and scenarios left?

    --Ignoring the law? Very unlikely, though anything is possible with BoJo.

    --A new deal before October 31st? Very unlikely as well. There are issues very difficult to agree, particularly the Irish border.

    --Snap elections to put pressure on the EU? Probably difficult as well.  BoJo needs 2/3 of Parliament support and this option has been already denied.

    --A new extension for negotiations? Most likely, even if it goes against BoJo's electoral promise.

    Chaos and uncertainty seem to rule the day in British politics. The feasible scenarios are all hard and they only add complexity to the negotiations. I would welcome some light on this confusing situation from our British colleagues.

    JE comments:  Halloween (Brexit Day) is only seven weeks away, a microsecond in political time.  BoJo may indeed have to eat BoCrow and ask for an extension.  The pundits tend to concur that Brussels will/would grant one more delay.  Do they really have any other option?

    I'm curious:  is the Irish border the biggest sticking point at present?

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