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PostFwd: Re: Forecasting the future (Daryl DeBell, US) (John Eipper, USA, 06/06/06 4:47 pm)
Daryl DeBell writes:I'm a sucker for questionaires, so here goes. 1aY,N 1bY,N 1cY, N 2aY 2bY 2cY 2d N,N 2eN 2fN 2gN 2hN,Y,Y 2iY. I would like to see predictions about inventions during the next century. Having lived through most of the last century, and Noseen the development of the automobile and its use, the radio and television, the airplane, the electric light and the general use of electricity to power all kinds of things; I am at a loss to imagine what novelties will be invented or what discoveries will be made. Space travel is a dead end unless something like a warp drive is invented (or worm holes are discovered and made useful) Time travel seeems unlikely unless understanding and mastery of other dimensions is accomplished-but who knows, maybe these things will come about.
1.a. Is there going to be a war in the Middle East, with Israel and the US on one side, and some Arab country in the other, after the US invasion of Iraq? If Yes, are nuclear weapons going to be used? Yes, no
1.b. Is there going to be a Palestine state, independent of Israel? If Yes, is Jerusalem going to be the capital of Palestine? Yes yes. c. Is Osama Bin Laden going to be captured? If Yes, alive or not? No
2.a. Will nuclear weapons be used in the future? (either war or terrorist attack) Yes
2.b. Will India surpass China in GDP per capita terms in the future? (democracy vs dictatorship, services vs manufacturing) Yes
2.c. Is there going to be a massive sudden epidemic (eg, avian flu) killing more than 25 million people in less than one year? (not current epidemics, like AIDS or malaria, but a new one) Yrs.
2.d. After the death of Castro, will Cuba become a democratic state? If Not, is the son of Fidel Castro going to r eplace him?Yes
2.e. Is the brent oil price going to hit the $20 per barrel in the future again? Yes
2.f. Is the European Union going to become a single country? No
2.g. Is there going to be any country that, after having adopted the Euro currency, changes its currency to a new one? Yes
2.h. Will the US become a dictatorship? Will any of the current European nations (belonging to the European Union) become a dictatorship? Will China become a democracy? No, no, yes
2.i. Is there going to be an earthquake in California with an intensity higher than 8 in the Richter scale? Yes
RH. please use this format in answering the quwstionnaire.
Plan to attend the WAIS conference on "Critical World Issues " at Stanford July 31-August 1, 2006. It will be a rare opportunity to meet other WAISers. Tell interested friends.
Ronald Hilton, Editor, 2006